COVID-19 Lessons Learned | Te Tira Ārai Urutā – Royal Commission of Inquiry Phases One and Two

“I have found Global Research to be an exceptional partner throughout the duration of the Covid-19 Inquiry. They showed outstanding professionalism; delivered to a very high standard; and were able to regularly adapt to our changing needs and requirements. I would not hesitate to recommend them for any work of this nature, especially where the coding and review of complex and detailed public submissions is required.”

– Karl Ferguson, Head of Communications and Engagement, Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19

Background and aims

Phase One: In December 2022, the New Zealand Government established a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the COVID-19 response with a view to identify lessons learned to better inform future pandemic responses. As part of this process, a range of public and stakeholder engagements were held throughout the country. From 8 February to 24 March 2024, New Zealanders were invited to make an online submission reflecting on their experience of the pandemic and the lessons learned during this period.

Phase Two: In June 2024, Minister of Internal Affairs Hon Brooke van Velden announced that the Inquiry would expand to a second phase. Phase Two examined key Government decisions made between February 2021 and October 2022, with the aim to assess whether those decisions struck a reasonable balance between public health goals and wider social and economic impacts.

In February 2025, submissions opened for Phase Two of the Royal Commission of Inquiry. The Phase Two terms of referenced focussed on:

• Vaccines, including mandates, approvals, and safety
• Lockdowns, especially the lockdowns of late 2021
• Testing and tracing technologies (like RATs or the COVID-19 Tracer app), and public health materials (like masks).

Our role

The Royal Commission engaged Global Research to analyse online submissions for Phases One and Two of the Inquiry, and support the Commission to prepare synthesis reports outlining the views of the New Zealand public.

Design and method

This project occurred in several distinct stages, beginning with the design and planning stage, followed by the collection of data, coding (analysing) the submissions, and finally, the report writing stage. Each of these key stages is outlined below:

Stage 1: Design and planning

Before the submission process opened, Global Research worked closely with the Royal Commission team (RCOI) to understand our role within the wider Inquiry, and begin planning our analysis and reporting approach.

In this stage, Global Research and the RCOI team created a draft coding framework in anticipation of the data we were set to receive. This involved identifying several top-level themes that people were likely to discuss or that were of particular interest to the Royal Commission, and topics to sit beneath these. This draft coding framework would evolve once coding began, but helped greatly in structuring the ideas that submitters were likely to raise into themes and topics.

Stage 2: Data collection

Phase One | 12,928 public submissions: The public submission platform, hosted by Citizen Space, opened on 8 February 2024, and ran for 6 weeks to 24 March. Emailed submissions were collated and included and analysed alongside those accepted via the online portal. Two questions were asked:

• Looking back – what would you like the Inquiry to know about your experiences of the pandemic?
• Moving forward – what lessons should we learn from your experiences so we can be as prepared as possible for a future pandemic?

Global Research coded data from 9th February, 2024 and completed on 30 April, 2024. Every submission was read and coded by a human analyst to inform the resulting reports.

Phase Two | 31,822 public submissions: Citizen Space hosted the Phase Two public submissions survey which opened on 3 February 2025 and ran for 12 weeks until 27 April. Again, emailed submissions were also included. One broad question was asked in Phase Two:

The COVID-19 Inquiry is assessing key decisions made by the New Zealand Government in 2021 and 2022 in the following areas:

• Vaccines, including mandates, approvals, and safety
• Lockdowns, especially the lockdowns of late 2021
• Testing and tracing technologies (like RATs or the COVID-19 Tracer app), and public health materials (like masks).

In relation to these topics, we need to hear from you about your COVID-19 experiences and how you think the Government should respond to pandemics in the future

Please share with us your COVID-19 pandemic experiences related to the topics above, and your views on how pandemics should be responded to in the future.

Global Research coded data from 4 February to 26 June 2025. A challenge to overcome in Phase Two was that three-quarters of submissions (over 23,000) were received in the last 5 days of the 83-day submission period.

Stage 3: Coding

A team of 12 skilled Global Research analysts coded batches of around 500 submissions at a tme, assisted by NVivo qualitative analysis software. Emailed submissions were imported into the software and treated in the same way as those that were submitted via the online portal. Analysts read all submissions in full and coded each idea into relevant topics and subtopics, evolving the initial coding framework into a highly detailed analysis structure. This approach resulted in a comprehensive understanding of the topics submitters discussed, and the extent to which these topics were important to submitters. The coding was a highly collaborative process that involved ongoing internal discussion to ensure that views were understood and represented, that all team members were coding consistently, and that the Commission’s needs were being met. We met regularly with the RCOI team to confirm coding was on track as well as that high-level objectives were being met.

As expected, the first 2-3 weeks of coding was particularly challenging as the themes and topics were being solidified. Topics were frequently added to ensure that all points made by submitters could be captured in the framework. For most large projects around 300 individual topics are required to capture all points made, but for this project over 1,200 topics were required–evidence of the breadth and complexity of opinions.

Submissions generally covered several topics, meaning that most submissions were coded to multiple topics. On average, each submission was coded to more than 10 different topics.

In numbers:

Result

The results from the public engagement process were an integral part of the Inquiry into the Government’s COVID-19 response, and will ensure that future pandemic planning is informed by first-hand human experiences. To ensure that the views and opinions shared by the New Zealand public were accurately conveyed and understood, Global Research prepared a number of outputs for the Royal Commission.

Interim reporting

During the regular meetings with the Royal Commission team, Global Research provided updates of the main themes and topics emerging within the feedback, so that initial thinking and preliminary reporting was informed by public opinion. This included the amounts, type and content of feedback.

A consolidated interim report, containing high-level summaries of the main themes and topics emerging from the feedback was also provided around a month into the Phase One coding. This enabled the Royal Commission team to gain a thorough understanding of the feedback coming through, and also to identify any areas of particular interest that they wanted to investigate further.

Phase One reporting

Global Research created a suite of six reports for Phase One, comprising:

One Full Analysis Report

This 550-page report is highly detailed and contains summaries of all themes, topics, and sub-topics raised within public submissions with quotes to illustrate the tone and voice of the submitters who contributed to the Royal Commission.

Four Deep Dive Reports

This was a suite of four smaller reports diving deeper into specific areas of interest to enable greater understanding of particular groups/issues of interest to the Royal Commission. These were:

1. The views and experiences of iwi and Māori
2. The views and experiences of disabled New Zealanders
3. The views and experiences of New Zealanders regarding the impact of COVID-19 on mental health
4. The views and experiences of New Zealanders who were overseas or seeking to travel during the pandemic.

One Voices Report: Looking Back to Move forward: Aotearoa New Zealand’s Experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic (Phase One)

• This 120-page public-facing report contains high-level summaries of the main topics and sentiments raised, so that the public can see their feedback reflected in a report that covers all topics and is yet digestible and engaging.
• Quotes, accompanied by demographic information, presented the tone and voices of those who provided feedback.

Read the Looking Back to Move forward: Aotearoa New Zealand’s Experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic report here: https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/experiences-of-the-covid-19-pandemic

Download the pdf version at the bottom left of the page.

Phase Two reporting

One Comprehensive Analysis Report: Whītiki Aotearoa: further lessons from COVID-19 to prepare Aotearoa New Zealand for a future pandemic (Phase Two)

• This 301 page report is highly detailed and contains summaries of all themes, topics, and sub-topics raised within public submissions.
  • The report includes links to video testimonies provided by a representative group of submitters on various topics (full video testimonies and public hearings information are available from the Royal Commission COVID-19 Lessons Learned website).
  • It includes sections that address cross-cutting themes that became evident once coding was underway, these include: the views and experiences of iwi, Māori and Pasifika, communication approaches, social cohesion, and others.
  • Lastly, it includes submissions and information gathered via sectoral and regional engagements that the Commission undertook between April and June 2025 across New Zealand.
• Quotes and links included throughout the report enable readers and the Commission to hear the voice and flavour of submitters comments.

Read the Whītiki Aotearoa: further lessons from COVID-19 to prepare Aotearoa New Zealand for a future pandemic here: https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/main-report-phase-2

Download the pdf version at the bottom left of the page.

Outcome

The Royal Commission has received a comprehensive set of outputs that quantify and describe in detail the extent and depth of public and stakeholder feedback on New Zealand’s pandemic experience.

This information has informed the Royal Commission’s final report, which was delivered with recommendations in February 2026. The New Zealand Government made the Royal Commission’s report available to the public on 10 March 2026.

Outcomes

From the public submissions processes

The New Zealand public had two opportunities to inform the Royal Commission of their experiences, and what they learned from living through COVID-19. The Royal Commission received a comprehensive set of outputs from Global Research that quantify and describe in detail the extent and depth of public and stakeholder feedback on New Zealand’s pandemic experience.

Our contribution to Phase One and Phase Two, by way of the public submissions analysis and reporting, has informed the Royal Commission’s final report, which was delivered with recommendations in February 2026. The New Zealand Government made the Royal Commission’s report available to the public on 10 March 2026.

Phase One Royal Commission outcomes for New Zealand’s future preparedness

A summary of outcomes from Phase One of the Royal Commission of Inquiry, released in late November 2024, highlights the successes and systemic gaps identified during the initial stages of the pandemic response. Where Phase Two focused more on mandates and economic accountability, Phase One provided the foundational "lessons learned" regarding New Zealand’s overall preparedness and response.

Key Findings and Successes

Elimination Strategy Success: The report concluded that the early adoption of the elimination strategy was highly effective, giving New Zealand one of the lowest COVID-19 mortality rates in the OECD and protecting vulnerable populations.

Economic and Social Support: The initial economic response and social support measures were praised by the Commission for maintaining life-as-usual as much as possible and preventing mass unemployment during the first two years.

Alert Level System: The ‘Alert Level’ system was hailed as a world-leading and innovative communication tool that provided clarity to the public during the early phases of the crisis.

Systemic Failures and Weaknesses

Lack of Preparedness: The inquiry found that New Zealand–like many countries–was not well prepared for a pandemic of this scale. Existing plans were too specific to influenza and did not account for the duration or impact of COVID-19.

"Human Cost" of Restrictions: While effective at stopping the virus, strict public health controls came at a significant human cost, particularly for those in managed isolation (MIQ), hospitals, or aged care who remained isolated from loved ones.

Inequitable Outcomes: The report noted that the vaccine rollout took too long to reach Māori and Pacific communities, and that these groups, along with those in lower socio-economic brackets, suffered disproportionately from school disruptions and health burdens.

Communication of Vaccine Risk: While the procurement of vaccines was effective, the inquiry found there was potential to strengthen how rare complications and risks were communicated to individuals at the time of vaccination.

Major Recommendations

The Phase One report delivered 39 primary recommendations to improve future readiness, including:

Central Preparedness Agency: Establish a central agency function to coordinate all-of-government pandemic preparedness and response planning.

Expert Advisory Group: Create a permanent pandemic expert advisory group comprising both public and non-government sectors to provide strategic advice.

Transparency Measures: Publicly publish a National Risk Register and require regular public sector audits of pandemic preparedness.

Workforce Protection: Develop plans to move public sector capability quickly during a crisis and implement rotation systems to prevent staff burnout.

Human Rights Safeguards: Establish formal accountability mechanisms to specifically protect democratic and human rights during emergency responses.

Phase Two Royal Commission outcomes for New Zealand’s future preparedness

The Phase Two report, released publicly on 10 March 2026, made 24 recommendations to the New Zealand Government. The Ministry of Health has been designated as the Lead Response Agency, supporting Health Minister Simeon Brown as Lead Response Minister, with the Government expected to outline its full response by July 2026.

Among the key findings, the Phase Two report concluded:

Lockdowns: While the initial 2020 response struck a reasonable balance, later restrictions, including the extended Auckland lockdown in late 2021 continued beyond what public health officials had recommended.

Economic Accountability: The Inquiry found that approximately half of the $60 billion COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund, spanning around 821 programmes, was unrelated to the pandemic, with these investments identified as contributing to current cost-of-living pressures and elevated public debt.

Vaccine Mandates: The inquiry identified a “significant failing” by the Ministry of Health, in which expert advice cautioned against a two-dose vaccine mandate for 12–17-year-olds due to myocarditis risks, was either delayed or not clearly communicated to Ministers and the public in a timely manner.

Legislative Change: Looking ahead, a primary recommendation of the Inquiry is the enactment of dedicated pandemic legislation to act as a safeguard for fundamental rights and freedoms, clearly defining the limits of emergency powers.

The inquiry and public health experts have also called for consideration of a distributed Centre for Disease Control (CDC) to strengthen future response capacity and improve coordination with international systems, including Australia’s. Additionally, the Government is being urged to invest in dedicated research into pandemic communication and social cohesion, to address the divisions left by mandates and lockdowns.